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General NLG Chat => StatFreak's Ramblings.. => Topic started by: StatFreak on October 11, 2013, 09:43:59 AM



Title: I wouldn't have believed it if I hadn't seen it -- so I took a picture!
Post by: StatFreak on October 11, 2013, 09:43:59 AM
Stupid is as stupid does, I guess.

I thought I'd seen just about everything in a casino over the last 30 years, but this is one for the books.
A picture is worth a thousand words, so...


Title: Re: I wouldn't have believed it if I hadn't seen it -- so I took a picture!
Post by: BR549 Auto Sales on October 11, 2013, 10:58:10 AM
She's just betting on a sure winner, duh..................... :208-


Title: Re: I wouldn't have believed it if I hadn't seen it -- so I took a picture!
Post by: proten on October 11, 2013, 11:04:10 AM
Prime example of "more money than brains" :279-


Title: Re: I wouldn't have believed it if I hadn't seen it -- so I took a picture!
Post by: Neonkiss on October 11, 2013, 02:48:18 PM
I can't believe that she left red and black wide open.


Title: Re: I wouldn't have believed it if I hadn't seen it -- so I took a picture!
Post by: StatFreak on October 11, 2013, 03:09:00 PM
I can't believe that she left red and black wide open.

 :200- :208- :208-  Yeah, odd and even, too. :200- , but she DID cover 0 and 00 (it's the bet on the line between the second and third twelve, foreground right.)

I actually went up to the pit supervisor and quietly said to him, "You must be feeling pretty good right about now."  He didn't say anything but he cracked a slight smile.

ADD: BTW, this is Ellis Island (a very small casino) and those are dollar chips. They're so small that their maximum payout on any number is only $500, so she's playing close to max bet on some numbers. That's why I made that comment to the pit boss.


Title: Re: I wouldn't have believed it if I hadn't seen it -- so I took a picture!
Post by: slot one on October 11, 2013, 03:32:23 PM
So for anyone who wants to try to do the math, what do you think she bet, and how much might she have won back?


Title: Re: I wouldn't have believed it if I hadn't seen it -- so I took a picture!
Post by: StatFreak on October 11, 2013, 03:45:20 PM
So for anyone who wants to try to do the math, what do you think she bet, and how much might she have won back?

Well, she was betting from one to five chips per straight number, obviously hoping to hit the ones with the five chips. She only hit numbers with one chip while I was there with one straddle, so she lost all of the "extra" chips on every number plus two more less 17 each time. She'd obviously win a little back when she finally hit one of her stacks, but if she wanted mostly even money returns, she should have just bet it all on Red or Black and Even or Odd, or better yet, gone to the Craps table and put it all on the pass line each time where the house would only take 1.4% of each wager instead of 5.26%)


Interestingly, there are players who pair up secretly, go to the Craps table (separately) and bet opposites. (One bets the Pass Line and the other bets the Don't Pass. The bets always match.) They are guaranteed no volatility and to lose 1.4% of their total wagers, but they play for the comps and the player rating. The losing player, in particular, then hits the supervisor up for 10% of his/her apparent loss in comps. The pit crews got wise to the scam and now look out for it.


Title: Re: I wouldn't have believed it if I hadn't seen it -- so I took a picture!
Post by: stayouttadabunker on October 11, 2013, 05:29:55 PM
where there's a will - there's a way...lol  Crooks everywhere!  :5-


Title: Re: I wouldn't have believed it if I hadn't seen it -- so I took a picture!
Post by: Neonkiss on October 11, 2013, 07:07:51 PM
(One bets the Pass Line and the other bets the Don't Pass. The bets always match.)

Betting the don't Pass line usually pisses off the table.

On the Roulette she would have been better off betting red for $20.00 and if she looses bet red again for $40.00
continue doubling the loss bet until red come in again. It will eventually.


Title: Re: I wouldn't have believed it if I hadn't seen it -- so I took a picture!
Post by: knagl on October 12, 2013, 09:00:41 AM
It will eventually.

...or she could bump into the table maximum, or find herself betting thousands of dollars to recoup $10.

Her system was crap, no doubt, but Martingale (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system)) is likely worse.   :71-


Title: Re: I wouldn't have believed it if I hadn't seen it -- so I took a picture!
Post by: Neonkiss on October 12, 2013, 11:09:20 AM
Knagl,
I didn't even know that strategy had a name, let alone how old it was.

K+


Title: Re: I wouldn't have believed it if I hadn't seen it -- so I took a picture!
Post by: jay on October 12, 2013, 04:02:34 PM
In BJ Martingale can work.
Statistically - when playing with a real shoe vs a continious shuffler you should not win nor lose more than 6 hands in a row.
Assuming a 10 table with a 1K limit, 10,20,40,80,160,320,640....


Title: Re: I wouldn't have believed it if I hadn't seen it -- so I took a picture!
Post by: rokgpsman on October 13, 2013, 12:41:58 AM
Quote
Interestingly, there are players who pair up secretly, go to the Craps table (separately) and bet opposites. (One bets the Pass Line and the other bets the Don't Pass. The bets always match.) They are guaranteed no volatility and to lose 1.4% of their total wagers, but they play for the comps and the player rating. The losing player, in particular, then hits the supervisor up for 10% of his/her apparent loss in comps. The pit crews got wise to the scam and now look out for it.

Except neither of them wins if the come out roll is 12.  The Pass line bet loses, the Don't Pass bet pushes, so the team overall loses on this roll, so their strategy will not break even. Also, a team betting both the Pass Line and the Don't Pass bets will be playing against a combined house edge that is higher than the 1.41% an individual line bet gives.

http://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/craps/betting-systems/ (http://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/craps/betting-systems/)





Title: Re: I wouldn't have believed it if I hadn't seen it -- so I took a picture!
Post by: rokgpsman on October 13, 2013, 01:01:55 AM
Stupid is as stupid does, I guess.

I thought I'd seen just about everything in a casino over the last 30 years, but this is one for the books.
A picture is worth a thousand words, so...


Roulette is sometimes called the "Devil's Game".  Add up all the numbers on the wheel, 1 thru 36, 0, 00 and you'll see where this old expression comes from.





 


Title: Re: I wouldn't have believed it if I hadn't seen it -- so I took a picture!
Post by: StatFreak on October 14, 2013, 02:35:44 AM
Quote
Interestingly, there are players who pair up secretly, go to the Craps table (separately) and bet opposites. (One bets the Pass Line and the other bets the Don't Pass. The bets always match.) They are guaranteed no volatility and to lose 1.4% of their total wagers, but they play for the comps and the player rating. The losing player, in particular, then hits the supervisor up for 10% of his/her apparent loss in comps. The pit crews got wise to the scam and now look out for it.
Except neither of them wins if the come out roll is 12.  The Pass line bet loses, the Don't Pass bet pushes, so the team overall loses on this roll, so their strategy will not break even. Also, a team betting both the Pass Line and the Don't Pass bets will be playing against a combined house edge that is higher than the 1.41% an individual line bet gives.

http://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/craps/betting-systems/ (http://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/craps/betting-systems/)

They KNOW they are going to lose 1.4%. That's the entire point. They also know that that's ALL they are going to lose. But what usually happens is that one side loses a lot and the other side wins (for a net loss of 1.4%). Now the side who lost goes to the pit and asks for a 10% comp on his loss -- but he didn't lose all that money because his silent partner won all of it back -1.4%. It doesn't matter which of them ends up winning or losing. In some cases the ballsy winner might ask for comps as well. We're not talking $10 bettors here, Think thousands. If they each bet $1000 a roll they appear to the casino to be separate thousand dollar players but they're only losing $28 between them each roll.

So, for example, they play for an hour (or whatever) and lose, say $500-$600. But one of them appears to have lost, say $15k and asks for $1500 in comps. Maybe the winning guy gets some comps as well. They also get their status bumped and will receive future offers for free suites, etc.


Title: Re: I wouldn't have believed it if I hadn't seen it -- so I took a picture!
Post by: rokgpsman on October 14, 2013, 03:22:51 PM

They KNOW they are going to lose 1.4%. That's the entire point. They also know that that's ALL they are going to lose. But what usually happens is that one side loses a lot and the other side wins (for a net loss of 1.4%). Now the side who lost goes to the pit and asks for a 10% comp on his loss -- but he didn't lose all that money because his silent partner won all of it back -1.4%. It doesn't matter which of them ends up winning or losing. In some cases the ballsy winner might ask for comps as well. We're not talking $10 bettors here, Think thousands. If they each bet $1000 a roll they appear to the casino to be separate thousand dollar players but they're only losing $28 between them each roll.

So, for example, they play for an hour (or whatever) and lose, say $500-$600. But one of them appears to have lost, say $15k and asks for $1500 in comps. Maybe the winning guy gets some comps as well. They also get their status bumped and will receive future offers for free suites, etc.


So they're not playing to win at the table, just hustling for comps.  Hmm...


Title: Re: I wouldn't have believed it if I hadn't seen it -- so I took a picture!
Post by: slot one on October 14, 2013, 04:35:03 PM
All that trouble so that you can eat, drink, and stay in their casino longer for free. And You Still Lose Money!!  The casinos have you beat no matter what someone tries to do.  LOL


Title: Re: I wouldn't have believed it if I hadn't seen it -- so I took a picture!
Post by: CVslots on October 14, 2013, 04:56:56 PM
When you get to that level of comps, I would imagine it may be worth "all that trouble"...Im sure they get more than a free meal. I know the free play I get at my level, and 10x that would be nice!


Title: Re: I wouldn't have believed it if I hadn't seen it -- so I took a picture!
Post by: StatFreak on October 14, 2013, 05:00:18 PM
All that trouble so that you can eat, drink, and stay in their casino longer for free. And You Still Lose Money!!  The casinos have you beat no matter what someone tries to do.  LOL

Well, I'd say that's true 99.7+% of the time (give or take)... Then there's the 0.3%...  :200-